Julia Goh, senior economist at United Overseas Bank Malaysia, told Sin Chew Daily that even if the strait were to reopen tomorrow, the rerouting of tankers, inventory depletion, and insurance market volatility would take months to stabilize.

"The geopolitical risk premium will not simply disappear; it will be permanently factored back into energy prices," she warned.

Goh analyzed that the crisis is creating a "domino effect".

First, it triggers cost-push inflation, driving up the costs of transport, food, and manufacturing.

Subsequently, fuel surcharges and contract risk premiums rise, bloating logistics costs and compressing consumer purchasing power.

"We are not merely approaching a crisis; we are already in the midst of one," Goh stated.

"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a 'tail risk'; our baseline assumptions must now be adjusted."

She predicts a global trade slowdown as the world enters a phase of higher baseline costs and persistent uncertainty.

Fuel-dependent road transport serves as the economic "lifeblood" of the region.

Goh believes that for most households in nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines — which rely heavily on motorcycles and trucks — shifting to rail or public transport in the short term is unrealistic.

For low-income households spending 40 to 50 percent of their income on food and transport, there is very little room to "breathe".

"The buffering capacity varies significantly," she noted.

"Singapore has fiscal reserves; Malaysia has upstream production and subsidies. In contrast, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Vietnam face tight reserves and high import dependency, leaving their citizens with much less resilience."

On March 24, the Philippines became the first ASEAN nation to declare a one-year "National Energy Emergency," activating a 20-billion-peso ($330 million) fuel fund.

The country relies on the Middle East for 95 percent of its oil.

The impact on agriculture is devastating. A 57-year-old farmer told Reuters he is letting his crops rot in the field because harvesting and transport costs exceed the selling price.

In Cambodia, fuel prices have surged 70 percent, and daily expenses for city residents have jumped by 50 percent.

Tuk-tuk fares have risen sharply, pushing rural residents back to traditional energy sources such as charcoal, while those in urban areas are switching to tax-free Chinese electric vehicles.

Despite being an oil and gas producer, Malaysia remains vulnerable, depending on the Middle East for 69 percent of its oil imports.

Tan Sri Tengku Muhammad Taufik, president and Group CEO of Petronas, noted that shipping costs through the Strait of Hormuz have tripled.

"Our crude production is naturally declining — from a peak of 700,000 barrels per day to about 350,000 now," he said.

For locals like Lee Chun Seng, 30, an electronics salesman in Selangor, the removal of subsidies has pushed his monthly fuel bill from RM717($181) to over RM1,038.

"I have to find a way out," he said.

"In the long run, solar power and EVs are the only way to save money."