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Resilient Chinese economy quells volatility

Experts: Unpredictability of US policy, impact of tariffs pose major challenges

By XIN ZHIMING in Beijing, XING YI in London and PRIME SARMIENTO in Hong Kong | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2025-12-31 07:21
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Consumers try out smartphones at a CDF duty-free shopping mall in Haikou, Hainan province, on Dec 18. YANG GUANYU/XINHUA

However, its tariff policy will continue to have an impact on the US economy, experts said.

"The US economy demonstrated continued resilience and benefited from pro-business policies, but the impact of tariffs has yet to feed through fully and has led to both uncertainty and sticky inflation," said British economist Lyons.

Palit of the National University of Singapore said: "The next year is going to be very crucial for the US economy because it will show what is the impact of the various trade deals that the United States has signed with various economies and whether those deals actually succeed in increasing exports from the US, improve its external balance, and push the growth of the American economy upward."

The upcoming US midterm elections will also be a political test for the administration's economic policies, he said.

The European economy will benefit from any peace deal in Ukraine, which, if inked, would start a reconstruction boom in parts of Europe, said Zhou.

"If we have a peace deal in 2026, that would lift the growth outlook for Europe," she said.

The EU's efforts to deregulate could also help the European economy, although the effect remains to be seen, she said.

The African economy, meanwhile, is set to register a high rate of growth in 2026, but the path ahead will be uneven, said an Economist Intelligence Unit report. While East and West Africa emerge as growth hot spots, debt distress, geopolitical tensions, and contested elections present ongoing risks, the report said.

"The current set of circumstances is positive for the continent. The challenge for Africa is around creating a substantial uplift in per capita GDP and breaking down borders via the much heralded African Continental Free Trade Area," said Satchu.

Xn Iraki, an associate professor at the University of Nairobi's Faculty of Business and Management Sciences, said the continent must solve problems such as chaotic politics and short-term strategies, to achieve sustained growth.

"Bad politics that drive corruption, the foreign power stranglehold on Africa and self doubt slow Africa's growth. Focusing on the citizens and their welfare, not the macros, could make all the difference. Like China, Africa should start playing the long game," he said.

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